What our delay labels mean, and how often they are right. Last tested October 2026.
When an Aspen flight is late, cancelled or diverted, the Flight Board shows a short reason, such as “Likely: late inbound aircraft.” We work that reason out ourselves from public weather, FAA and flight data. It is not the airline’s official reason.
Always check with your airline. The reason an airline gives can affect what it owes you. Airlines usually offer more help, like meal vouchers or a hotel, when the problem was in their control, such as maintenance or crew. Ask the airline, even if our label says weather.
Every reason comes with one of three words. We tested them against about 6,000 disrupted Aspen flights from July 2025 to July 2026, comparing our reason with the one each airline reported to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Strong evidence at the flight’s own time and place, and nothing else fits as well. For example, the plane that was due to fly your flight landed late from Denver, and that alone explains your delay.
Some evidence points this way, but other causes fit too, or this kind of evidence is often wrong. Weather on a plain delay is always “Possible,” because low clouds or wind at Aspen often happen on the same day as unrelated delays.
Nothing in public weather, FAA or aircraft data explains it. That does not mean the airline caused it. When we checked, these flights were split about evenly between airline problems and weather our data did not catch.
Why not 10 in 10? Some of our misses are real mistakes. But airlines choose their own reason codes, they only report a cause for flights 15 or more minutes late, and a federal audit found those codes often disagree with FAA records. So the airline’s report is a good check, not a perfect one.
Some reasons come in two parts, like “Likely: late inbound aircraft. Possibly low clouds at Aspen.” The first part is how your flight was hit. The second is what held up the plane before it reached you, and it has its own word.