Avoid getting stuck in Aspen
Alerts from the disruption model that flagged 50 of the 56 roughest days at KASE last season, in a blind back-test. Know before the airline tells you.
🎯 Founding waitlist open: lock launch pricing and get your first trip watched free
Why Trust This Score
50 of 56. The roughest days at KASE in the 2025–26 season that the model flagged, in a blind back-test against government flight records.
19 live signals. KASE weather, the forecasts at the hub airports that feed Aspen, FAA operations, and how flights actually ran yesterday.
Built only for Aspen. Trained on this one airport's flight records. Nothing generic, nothing borrowed from other airports.
How we built and tested it: read the full methodology.
What the Risk Score Means
Every day gets a live disruption probability built from 19 signals: KASE weather and forecasts, conditions at the hub airports that feed Aspen, FAA operations, and how flights actually ran yesterday. The colors compare today against every other day at this airport.
🟢 GREEN: Low Risk
Conditions are favorable. E175 flights typically operate normally.
🟡 YELLOW: Moderate Risk
Conditions where delays, weight limits, or diversions are more likely. Monitor closely.
🔴 RED: High Risk
Near operational limits. Diversion or cancellation risk is meaningfully higher.
Text alerts are coming for both paid plans; email comes first. For scale: one last-minute
Aspen hotel night after a missed connection costs more than a decade of Trip Watch.
The Aspen Flight Brief
On the days that matter (an incoming storm, the holiday crunch, runway construction news), All-Season members get a short plain-English brief from the KASE Weather team: what the weather actually means for flights, which departures look safest, and when it's time to think about Eagle instead. Written when there's something to say, not on a content schedule.
🎉 Join the Waitlist
Founding members lock launch pricing and get their first trip watched free.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is this best for?
Anyone who travels in and out of Aspen and has felt the pain of delays, diversions, or wasted trips. That includes locals, visitors, second homeowners, business travelers with tight schedules, and event coordinators.
How accurate is the risk score?
The score comes from a disruption model that reads 19 live signals: government weather data for KASE, forecasts for the hub airports that feed Aspen, FAA operations, and how flights actually ran yesterday. In a blind back-test against government flight records, it flagged 50 of the 56 most disrupted days of the 2025–26 season. It is a back-tested probability, not a guarantee, and it won't match an airline's exact decision-making.
Full methodology here.
What do I get for paying, if alerts are free?
The free alerts tell you when Aspen-Pitkin County Airport as a whole turns risky. They fire whether or not you are flying that week. Premium watches the specific dates you travel, in both directions, and adds your flight number's winter track record and a fallback plan for a diversion to Eagle, Grand Junction, or Denver. Free is a weather signal. Paid is about your trip.
How far in advance can I see risk?
The free tool shows current conditions plus the official KASE forecast, which covers about 24 hours ahead, and the model updates its outlook through the day as new data arrives. Premium alerts will notify you as soon as risk shifts within that window, so you have time to act before the airline does.
When will Premium launch?
In phases, ahead of the 2026–27 winter season. Free airport-wide email alerts come first, by December 1, 2026, and anyone can sign up for those on the
dashboard. Paid trip watching follows, with waitlist members getting first access and founding members locking the pricing shown on this page. Text alerts come after email.
How do the alerts work?
You'll receive email notifications when risk at KASE shifts from GREEN to YELLOW or RED during your watched dates. That is the difference from the free alerts, which fire on the airport's overall risk regardless of when you fly. Once text alerts launch they'll be reserved for critical (RED) conditions or rapid deterioration, so you only get a text when it really matters.
What if I'm not satisfied?
When Premium launches, every plan will come with a 7-day money-back guarantee. If it doesn't help you make better travel decisions, we'll refund you, no questions asked.
What aircraft is the risk score calibrated to?
The weather thresholds in the model are calibrated to the Embraer E-175, the aircraft United and Delta fly to Aspen; American flies the smaller CRJ-700. The headline score goes further: it also weighs hub-airport forecasts, FAA operations, and yesterday's actual flight results, because Aspen disruptions are rarely about one aircraft limit in isolation.
Is this official airline information?
No. This is a passenger-focused risk assessment tool built on official government data (NOAA weather, FAA operations, DOT flight records). Airlines make their own operational decisions based on many additional factors including aircraft weight, crew, runway conditions, and company policies.
The difference is timing. The airline notifies you after it decides. This tool watches the conditions that force those decisions, so you can think about your plan before the notification lands.